Hero Motors | Auto
March 27, 2019
Hero Motors
HOLD
CMP
`2,580
Building Blocks for Future
Target Price
`2,870
Hero Motors, one of the largest player in the Industry in the two-wheeler industry
Investment Period
12 Months
(38% market share as on FY2018); has been facing strong headwinds after its break-
up with Honda. The company has been underperforming the industry growth; in spite
of strong business fundamentals- like product basket, branding & strong distribution
network. The key reason behind its underperformance has been the missing links like
Stock Info
no main product in the premium / scooter segment and very less aggression in
Sector
Auto
expanding the export markets. At this stage, the company is building blocks for future
Market Cap (` cr)
51,524
by investing in missing blocks to make sure that it emerges in next 4-5 years as a
Net Debt (` cr)
(6,395)
complete two wheeler player, having products across market segments. Thus, we
Beta
0 .9
recommend a HOLD.
52 Week High / Low
3862/2545
Avg. Daily Volum e
11,221
Two-Wheeler space in a moderate growth space: Indian Two wheeler Industry
Face Value (`)
2
BSE Sensex
38,233
that mirrors the Indian GDP growth has been growing at a CAGR of 8.1% (FY2011-
Nifty
11,483
2018) in volume terms (23mn at the end of FY2018). However, in the short and medium
Reuters Code
HROM.BO
term, the industry is sensitive to the monsoon trends, rural income, inflation,
Bloom berg Code
HMCL.IN
government policies, crude, and interest rates & amongst others, the regulatory
compliance like the BSVI norms, which will be implemented in India by FY2021. Going
Shareholding Pattern (%)
into FY2020E, the growth in the industry is likely to come in close to mid to high single
Prom oters
34.6
digits (i.e a growth of 5-8%).
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
17.3
FII / NRIs / OCBs
40.2
Hero Motors; inventing for future: Over FY2018-20E, the company will post a
Indian Public / Others
7 .9
CAGR of 7.8% in sales terms. On net profit front, we expect the company to deliver a
flattish performance during the period. The stock, has on the other hand has
Abs .(% )
3m
1 yr
3 yr
witnessed, a strong de-rating and trades now at 3.7xFY2020E BV (including cash &
Sensex
7 .2
15.6
53.2
Investments). However, to protect a further de-rating the company has to exhibit all
Hero Motors
(19.0)
(25.9)
(9.4)
the characteristics of a leading player, which implies that its R&D efforts have to
fructify, which should happen in next 4-5 years). In addition, company’s strong balance
sheet and high ROE of business, enables higher dividend payout and should restrict
the underperformance from here on, even for long-term buyers. Thus, we
recommend a HOLD.
3-Year Daily Price Chart
4,500
Key financials (Consolidated)
4,000
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2017
FY2018
FY2019E
FY2020E
Net sales
28,610
32,458
34,655
37,739
3,500
% chg
0.5
13.4
6.8
8.9
3,000
Net profit
3,452
3,576
3,402
3,605
2,500
% chg
14.5
3.6
(4.9)
5.9
EBITDA margin (%)
16.0
16.4
14.5
14.8
2,000
EPS (`)
172.9
179.1
170.4
180.5
P/E (x)
14.9
14.4
15.1
14.3
P/BV (x)
5.0
4.3
4.0
3.7
Source: Company, Angel Research
RoE (%)
36.1
32.1
27.3
26.7
RoCE (%)
39.6
39.3
32.8
34.0
Sarabjit kour Nangra
EV/Sales (x)
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.4
+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6806
EV/EBITDA (x)
11.3
9.7
10.2
9.2
sarabjit @angelbroking.com
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of March 26, 2019
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
Hero Motors | Auto
Two-Wheeler space in a moderate growth space (FY2018-21)
Indian Two wheeler Industry that mirrors the Indian GDP growth has been growing at a
CAGR of 8.1% (FY2011-2018) in volume terms (23mn at the end of FY2018). Domestic
markets occupied a major chunk of the same (almost 88% of the volumes) delivering a
CAGR of 8.0%, while exports (12% of the volumes) delivered a growth of almost 9.0%;
albeit on a smaller base. Overall Two-wheeler industry occupies around 81% of the
market share of overall domestic Auto Industry. Going forward the trend is likely to
persist as the Industry still have levers, which will aid the Industry to grow in line with
the GDP growth.
Long-term drivers are intact
Two-wheeler Industry has been minoring its GDP growth. With Indian economy likely
to continue to grow at 7-8% in real terms in near term, Two-wheeler Industry can easily
mirror this growth. All the key levers i.e urbanization, improvement in technology,
increased financial access and increased women participation, will enable the Indian
GDP to grow at fast pace. Two-wheelers penetration in India is still lower at 102 bikes
per 1000 people, which is lower than its Asian peers also, like Thailand & Indonesia,
where the 2Wheeler penetration is 291 & 281 respectively. Even Malaysia has a higher
penetration at 166 bikes per 1000 people. If we were to dissect the two- wheeler
penetration in India, much of the growth has come on back of urban population, which
forms 60% of the industry volumes and has a penetration of 40-45%, while rural India,
which forms 40% of the volumes, has penetration levels of 20-25%, taking the average
Indian penetration levels at 30-40% per household. In addition, if you dissect the market,
around 51% of bike customers are first time buyers, 27-28% are replacement buyers
and 22% are additional bike buyers. Thus, this leaves a lot of scope for the Two-wheeler
industry to post a robust growth; at least in line with GDP growth.
However, if you dissect the Two-wheeler industry in terms of products, it is the
Motorcycles, (which at 15mn at the end of FY018 constituted almost 66% of the
volumes) posted a moderate growth of 5.3% during FY2011-2018. Major chunk of the
growth came in through Scooters (which at 7mn at the end of FY2018 constituted 31%
of the volumes), posted a growth of 18.8% during FY2011-2018. Moped, which is a
minor constituent (3.8% of the overall volumes); underperformed growing at 3.2%
during FY2011-2018. In Motorcycles, the growth was visible in the economy & premium
segments, while posted a CAGR of 10.2% and 11.5% respectively, while the economy
segment remained flat ( data pretending to FY2013-2018).
Near term hiccups to impact growth
However, in the short and medium term, the industry is sensitive to the monsoon trends,
rural income, inflation, government policies, crude, and interest rates & amongst others,
the regulatory compliance like the BSVI norms, which will be implemented in India by
FY2021.
This was already visible in FY2019, where the long-term trend saw a reversal V/s FY2018.
The motorcycle segment gained ~200 bps share in 10M FY2019 in two-wheeler pie
whereas it had been steadily losing share to scooters over the past ten years.
Motorcycles grew at a faster pace than scooters in 10M FY2019 driven by the strong
volume growth of entry-level motorcycles. In scooters, the traditional 110cc scooter
growth faltered but the newly launched, feature rich 125cc scooters drove the growth
March 27, 2019
2
Hero Motors | Auto
of the segment. Mopeds also staged a comeback this year with 3.6% growth in 10 Month
FY2019 whereas in FY2018 they had de-grown by 3.5%.
Going into FY2020E, the growth in the industry is likely to come in close to mid to high
single digits( i.e a growth of 5-8%), driven again by rural economy, improved disposable
income, moderate inflation. In addition, it places bets that the political scenario remains
stable and monsoons are normal and well spread through India. In addition, FY2020
could also witness a pre-buying, as most companies believe before the BSVI is
implemented in FY2021E. Moreover, the growth is likely to be very much back ended i.e
visible during 2HFY2020. Thus, FY2021, forecasted is highly sensitive to the economic
scenario panning out as BSVI implementation (effective April 2020), could easily add up
to 6-8% to the overall cost of the ownership. Moreover, this will be the first for the
Industry, as Industry interactions have pointed out that it is the first time in the world
that the Two -wheelers are expected to comply with the BSVI Regulations. However,
BSVI norms will be beneficial, as it will bring down the pollution emission by 90%. The
ABS norms to be implemented, will not impact the Hero Motors as its for bikes more
than 125CC, and Hero’s only bike in the space higher than that is Xtreme 200, which is
already ABS compliant .
Margins; should remain in line with FY2019 levels
Over FY2014-17, the margins have remained more or less in the range of 14%-18%.
Barring few quarters, in between the Industry has witnessed a good times with soft
commodity starting from FY2016- until date. In FY2019, the Industry has seen some
impact of the rising raw material prices on the OPM’s, especially during 1QFY219 and
3QFY2019. As, of now the key raw materials like crude, steel and Aluminum have
witnessed a softening of prices and are at levels, which should not to be threat in terms
of a pass through for the companies. Generally, the Two-wheeler companies take hikes
of 1-2% yoy, much below the inflation levels. Thus, the industry is unlikely to achieve a
severe price cuts or even high inflationary pressures sustainably over a long period &
hence in long term such margins in the range of 14-16% is sustainable for the Industry.
However, given that most of the company could witness sales growth mostly in line with
FY2019, the margins could settle at around 16-17%.
Hero Motors; inventing for future
Largest Player in the Indian Two Wheeler market
Hero Motors dominates, the Indian two-wheeler market, enjoying a market share of 38
%( as on FY2018). However, there has been a major shift in the market share of Hero
Motors post its split with Honda. The overall market share of the company has declined
from ~43% in FY2013 to around 36% as on 3QFY2019. However, this is more to do with
the shift of the consumers towards the scooter market, which was created and till now
is dominated by Honda, through its Brand Activa. This also evident from the fact that,
scooters contribute around 31% of the overall market in FY2018 V/s 16% of the market
in FY2011.
In Motorcycle market, the Hero still dominates with market-share of 50% as on
3QFY2019 V/s 53% in FY2013. During FY2018, Hero had a market share of 52%. Thus,
the price cuts taken during the year by Bajaj Auto in FY2019 in the economy segment
of Motorcycle segment; lead Hero loss its market share in the segment. In the economy
March 27, 2019
3
Hero Motors | Auto
segment the company had a market share of 59% as on FY2018, which on back of
aggressive pricing of Bajaj Auto; came down to around 53.1% as on 3QFY2019. Economy
segment overall contributed around 26% of the overall domestic Motorcycle market.
In the executive segment, Hero Motors has a major dominance, having a market share
of almost 70% as on FY2018. This segment has witness steady rise for the company. In
FY2013, the company had market share of around 62%. However apart from these two
segments, the company’s presence has been almost zero in the premium segment and
company has fully lost the opportunity to participate in the segment (it had 3% market-
share in the premium motorcycle segment as on 3QFY2019). Apart from these
disruptions, the Motorcycle market had been stable for the players, with TVS & Honda,
being other players. Though there is a competition, the companies with strong hold are
holding on to their market-share on back of strong brand franchises.
In the Scooters market, Honda’s dominance is clear; Honda holds almost 57% of the
overall domestic scooter market as on FY2018. Other key player in the market is TVS
Motors, which has enjoyed a market share higher than Hero Motors at around 15-16%
and had been steady player in the segment. Hero Motors has enjoyed a market share
of 11% as on 3QFY2019V/s 19% it enjoyed in FY2013. Thus, Hero even though was
strong player lost to the competition because of not reading the market well and not
having strong product basket in the segment. In addition, unlike other players, which
have grown at strong growth on back of the exports Hero Motors exposure to the
exports have been minimal at ~3%. Thus, overall Hero Motors has maintained its
dominance because exports of the Motorcycle segment posted a CAGR of 7.7%, while
exports of scooters posted a CAGR of 29.8% during FY2011-2018. Overall exports for
the whole industry stood at 12% as on FY2018.
Thus, overall Hero Motors has dominated the landscape of the Two-wheeler Industry,
on back of its stronghold in the economy and executive segment ( through Splendor
and HF brand franchisee), though at the cost of underperforming the overall growth in
the Industry.
Banking on Rural & new product launches; exports a weak link
Hero Motors, unlike its peers drives almost 50% of its volume sales through rural India
and has a strong dealership network (6,500+), which has aided its leadership position in
the Two-wheeler Industry. Going forward, the company is planning to invest in bridging
the product gap that it has; either launching new products in the segments like Scooters
& Premium Motorcycle segment. It has already invested around US$125mn in setting
up an R&D Center at Jaipur and spends around 1.5-2.0% of its sales on R&D, which is a
big amount been invested by an Indian two wheeler company in the R&D set-up. Led
by Dr Markus Braunsperger (CTO)/ 25 years of R&D experience in BMW, Germany.
Engaged 700+ automotive experts with global, regional expertise across 6 nationalities.
Company plans to launch at least 1-2 products every year for next 4-5 years and plans
to capture market share of around 15-18% in each category; though addressing
products across the 200-400CC premium category, as well as a scooter in the 125Cc
space. In FY2019, the company had launched Xtreme200CC and Destini I, which so far
have failed to capture a major share in the respective segments. Launch of Destini in
Oct’2018 helped capture ~10% market share in the 125cc scooter segment at retail level.
March 27, 2019
4
Hero Motors | Auto
Thus, its imperative for hero motors to capture this market; in order to maintain its
dominance in the Industry along with outperform/ grow in line with the Industry.
In addition, the company has invested in Ather energy- a startup, investing US$31mn,
for a 30% stake in the company. The company is already launched the premium EV
scooters in India. As of now, company does not plan to take the product on board. As
per its own EV strategy; the company plans to own in-house expertise to develop own
EV products.
Margins likely to remain range-bound around 14-16%
Inspite of spending on R&D, company expects Hero Motors to maintain its margins in
the range of 14-16%. Apart from the fixed costs, the raw material costs, which have a
bearing on the OPM, is expected to soften and the results of the same are expected to
reflect by 4QFY2019. However, during FY2020, we expect the margins to remain similar
at around 14.4% V/s 14.8% in FY2018, as we conservatively built the volume growth to
be bit similar to FY2018, with little perk-up in volumes on back of pre-buying before BS6
implementation. Thus, on a long run the company can deliver margins in the range of
14-16%, unless the competitive intensity increases.
Valuations & Outlook
Over FY2014-18, company posted a sales and net profit CAGR of 6.5% and 17.1%
respectively. Volume growth during the period was 5.0%. Over FY2018-20E, the
company is expected to post a CAGR of 7.8%, aided by a 7.0% CAGR in volume terms.
On net profit front, we expect the company to deliver a flattish performance during the
period, as we expect the margins to be under pressure. The stock, has on the other hand
has witnessed, a strong de-rating and trades now at 3.7xFY2020 BV (including cash &
investments). Given that, the industry is a high ROIC Industry with few dominant players,
the stocks downside is protected to certain extent. However, to protect a further de-
rating the company has to exhibit all the characteristics of a defensive nature, which
implies that its R&D efforts have to fructify and aid company fortify the leadership
position. At current juncture, the Two-wheeler market is clearly divided between Hero
motors, Honda, TVS motors & Bajaj Auto. While the latter two players are trying to hold
onto the market-share, with exports & pricing strategy Hero Motors is trying to get in
lines of the players like Honda. Thus, we believe that R&D efforts of the company have
to be delivery before this de-rating can be arrested. Company expects its R&D efforts
to be clearly visible in next 4-5 years. However, given that the company’s has a strong
cash on balance sheet and high ROE of business, enables higher dividend payout, we
believe that further underperformance from here on should be restricted from here-on,
even for long-term buyers. Hence, we recommend a HOLD.
Company Background
Hero Motors, one of the largest player in the Industry in the two-wheeler industry (37%
market share as onFY2018. In fact, Hero Motors is the largest Motorcycle Company in
the world with the installed capacity of 84mn as on FY2018. The company has invested
It has already invested around US$125mn in setting up an R&D Center at Jaipur and
spends around 1.5-2.0% of its sales on R&D, which is a big amount been invested by an
Indian two wheeler company in the R&D set-up. Led by Dr Markus Braunsperger (CTO)/
25 years of R&D experience in BMW, Germany. Engaged 700+ automotive experts with
global, regional expertise across six nationalities. Company plans to launch at least 1-2
products every year for next 4-5 years
March 27, 2019
5
Hero Motors | Auto
Profit & Loss statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (`cr)
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018
FY2019E
FY2020E
Net Sales
28,457
28,610
32,458
34,655
37,739
Other operating income
6
6
4
4
4
Total operating income
28,463
28,617
32,463
34,660
37,743
% chg
3.3
0.5
13.4
6.8
8.9
Total Expenditure
24,059
24,034
27,133
29,621
32,142
Net Raw Materials
19,358
19,019
21,996
23,878
25,927
Other Mfg costs
332
319
381
407
443
Personnel
1,339
1,432
1,584
1,821
2,094
Other
2,750
2,840
2,806
2,996
3,263
R&D Expenses
279
425
367
520
415
EBITDA
4,398
4,576
5,325
5,034
5,597
(% of Net Sales)
15.5
16.0
16.4
14.5
14.8
Depreciation& Amortisation
443
502
575
628
690
EBIT
3,954
4,074
4,750
4,406
4,907
Interest & other Charges
15
27
31
8
8
Other Income
314
738
423
669
720
Recurring PBT
4,224
4,791
5,146
5,072
5,624
Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.)
(127.4)
(94.0)
(145.8)
(145.8)
(145.8)
PBT (reported)
4,351
4,885
5,292
5,218
5,770
Tax
1,274.7
1,339.1
1,569.9
1,669.7
2,019.4
PAT (reported)
3,077
3,546
3,722
3,548
3,750
Basic EPS (Rs)
151.0
172.9
179.1
170.4
180.5
March 27, 2019
6
Hero Motors | Auto
Balance sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2016 FY2017
FY2018 FY2019E FY2020E
Equity Share Capital
40
40
40
40
40
Reserves & Surplus
8,794
10,276
11,932
12,945
14,020
Shareholders Funds
8,834
10,316
11,971
12,985
14,059
Minority Interest
55
67
93
93
93
Long-term provisions
68
76
119
119
119
Total Loans
232
261
228
228
228
Deferred Tax Liability
222
469
582
582
582
Total Liabilities
9,411
11,188
12,993
13,888
14,962
Net Block
3,784
4,599
4,961
5,533
6,042
Capital Work-in-Progress
653
581
355
355
355
Investments
4,502
6,066
7,669
7,985
8,570
Long-term loans and advances
1,126
1,039
999
999
1,067
Current Assets
2,832
3,026
3,411
3,716
4,047
Current liabilities
3,485
4,124
4,403
4,701
5,119
Net Current Assets
(654)
(1,098)
(992)
(985)
(1,072)
Non Current Assets
-
Total Assets
9,411
11,188
12,993
13,888
14,962
March 27, 2019
7
Hero Motors | Auto
Cash flow statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019E FY2020E
Profit before tax
4,351
4,885
5,292
5,218
5,770
Depreciation
443
502
575
628
690
(Inc)/Dec in Working Capital
218
374
(103)
83
184
Less: Other income
314
738
423
669
720
Direct taxes paid
(1,275)
(1,339)
(1,570)
(1,670)
(2,019)
Cash Flow from Operations
3,424
3,684
3,771
3,590
3,905
(Inc.)/Dec.in Fixed Assets
(1,111)
(1,190)
(655)
(1,200)
(1,200)
(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments
(1,383)
(1,565)
(1,603)
(316)
(585)
Other income
314
738
423
669
720
Cash Flow from Investing
(2,181)
(2,016)
(1,835)
(846)
(1,065)
Issue of Equity
1
1
3
-
-
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
132
29
(33)
-
-
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)
(1,398)
(1,737)
(1,698)
(2,388)
(2,530)
Others
(59)
39
(151)
(158)
(281)
Cash Flow from Financing
(1,324)
(1,668)
(1,879)
(2,546)
(2,811)
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash
(80)
(1)
57
197
29
Opening Cash balances
155
75
74
131
328
Closing Cash balances
75
74
131
328
357
March 27, 2019
8
Hero Motors | Auto
Key ratios
Y/E March
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018
FY2019E
FY2020E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS)
17.1
14.9
14.4
15.1
14.3
P/CEPS
14.6
12.7
12.0
12.3
11.6
P/BV
5.8
5.0
4.3
4.0
3.7
Dividend yield (%)
2.8
3.3
3.7
4.0
4.2
EV/Sales
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.4
EV/EBITDA
11.7
11.3
9.7
10.2
9.2
EV / Total Assets
5.5
4.6
4.0
3.7
3.4
Per Share Data (Rs)
EPS (Basic)
151.0
172.9
179.1
170.4
180.5
EPS (fully diluted)
151.0
172.9
179.1
170.4
180.5
Cash EPS
176.3
202.7
215.2
209.1
222.4
DPS
72.0
85.0
95.0
102.2
108.3
Book Value
442.4
516.6
599.5
650.2
704.0
Dupont Analysis
EBIT margin
13.9
14.2
14.6
12.7
13.0
Tax retention ratio
70.7
72.6
70.3
68.0
65.0
Asset turnover (x)
7.7
7.0
8.0
7.9
7.7
ROIC (Post-tax)
76.0
72.1
82.3
68.6
65.1
Cost of Debt (Post Tax)
6.2
8.0
8.9
2.2
2.1
Leverage (x)
(0.0)
0.0
0.0
(0.0)
(0.0)
Operating ROE
75.6
72.5
82.5
68.3
64.5
Returns (%)
ROCE (Pre-tax)
49.1
39.6
39.3
32.8
34.0
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)
55.2
42.9
41.6
34.4
35.7
ROE
39.2
36.1
32.1
27.3
26.7
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block)
3.3
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.8
Inventory / Sales (days)
49
53
57
58
58
Receivables (days)
52
47
33
33
33
Payables (days)
57
58
53
52
52
Working capital cycle (ex-cash) (days)
(12)
(14)
(14)
(13)
(13)
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity
0.0
0.0
(0.0)
(0.0)
(0.0)
Net debt to EBITDA
0.0
0.0
(0.0)
(0.0)
(0.0)
Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest)
270.7
149.3
154.2
585.9
652.5
March 27, 2019
9
Hero Motors | Auto
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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by Analyst during the past twelve months.
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Disclosure of Interest Statement
Hero Motor
1. Financial interest of research analyst or Angel or his Associate or his relative
No
2. Ownership of 1% or more of the stock by research analyst or Angel or associates or
No
relatives
3. Served as an officer, director or employee of the company covered under Research
No
4. Broking relationship with company covered under Research
No
Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)
March 27, 2019
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